With still over eleven months until the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, a large field of candidates for the Presidency representing both parties has stepped forward. Thus, some observations and outlooks about each of them is already in in order.
The favorites and challengers from the Democratic side of the slate...
1) Hillary Clinton - Senator Clinton is the favorite coming out of the clubhouse and is almost a leadpipe cinch to win the nomination. It is hers to lose. She has the unmatched capability in this campaign of both thoroughly exciting and captivating citizens and yet also angering and infuriating others. While she lacks a genuine warmth and charisma, her intelligence and fire gives her a great deal of credibility. Her presence in front of TV cameras and the press leaves something to be desired, and another candidate may capitalize on those shortcomings and overtake her before the votes start getting counted for real.
2) Barack Obama - The Freshman Illinois Senator has created a lot of interest and excitement from his entry into the race, but once you get past that, one has to seriously question if he has the experience and worldliness to take on the job as the most important person on the planet. His book has spelled out his observations, outlook, and vision for our nation, but he has to prove to a lot of citizens that he is the best candidate for the Democrats and that would seem to be an accomplishment that would be difficult at best to achieve at this point in history. It seems he is a man ahead of his time and would be better suited to be a candidate in 2012 or 2016.
3) John Edwards - The 2004 Vice-Presidential Candidate has set forth an aggressive agenda and, in spite of the lack of a lot of experience particularly in world affairs, does have the vision and charisma to upset the current leaders in the race. Whether he can capitalize on that early in the season when it will count most remains to be seen, but of the current longshots, he stands the best chance of becoming a frontrunner down the road.
4) Bill Richardson - The New Mexico Governor could have the nomination fall into his lap with the right circumstances, but he stands as more as a likely Vice-Presidential nominee because of his Hispanic appeal. His foreign policy experience does rank as a big plus.
5) Wesley Clark - The retired General has a great deal of credibility and experience in foreign policy unlike most of his competitors. But he is probably too much of a centist and is seen as being too close to the military for the largely politically correct leftist Democratic electoral core.
6) Dennis Kucinich - The Ohio Congressman and former hapless Cleveland Mayor has a loyal core of dedicated supporters that will enable him to stay in the race longer than might be expected, but his chances for the nomination are zilch and his impact on the platform will be minimal.
7) Joseph Biden - Delaware's Senior Senator has long been a Washington insider and a voice for the party, but he has no chance of getting the nomination anymore than he did back in 1988 when he first ran for the Presidency. He is DOA in this campaign.
8) Christopher Dodd - This longtime Connecticut Senator and Washington insider has no chance of earning the nomination and is likely to be one of the first ones to bow out of the campaign.
9) Tom Vilsack - The Iowa Governor is a paler version of John Edwards, and although he has some good ideas on policy direction particularly on energy, he will have difficulty in standing out in the crowded field and his Iowa base will not transfer readily to Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and West Coast.
10) Mike Gravel - The Alaskan's campaign is almost akin to Kucinch's, and while he has no chance to take the nomination, he will bring an alternative voice to the campaign which will be refreshingly new as all the other candidates are well known already. (can anyone picture this man in their head?)
...and I have to mention one other person, former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. While he continues to insist that he will not be a candidate, there is widespread belief that he will join the campaign later this year, and when and if this happens, he will win the nomination and be the odds on favorite to win the Presidency and actually be sworn in, unlike what happened in 2000-2001.
On the Republican side of the slate...
1) John McCain - Much like Hillary Clinton, the nomination is for his to lose. McCain carries both a lot of credibility and baggage within the GOP, but he stands out today as the best candidate for the GOP in 2008. He can be both engaging and gruff and his domestic policy stance is a little more to the center than many in the Republican electorate may like, but his experiences, record, and voice on foreign policy place him head and shoulders above all his competitors. The key for McCain will be moving to right enough to satisfy the conservative Republican electorate without having any consequences further in the process.
2) Rudy Gulliani - He will get the nomination if McCain falters in spite of enormous shortcomings and inadequacies in almost every important area that can be considered. He is a lot of smoke and no fire, but throughout our history many candidates like him have gone a long way. Whether if he has any substance remains to be seen.
3) Mitt Romney - The former Massachusetts Governor is a dark horse for the nomination and still has a long way to go to capture the imagination of the GOP electorate. His stand on a number of moral issues essential to the core has wavered noticeably and some voters may not be comfortable with a Morman, particularly zealous Southern evangelicals and other fervant religious Republicans who make up a large amount of the party's voting core.
4) Sam Brownback - This Kansan stands to have the most to gain in the coming year or so. His stance on most issues is in line with most Republicans and he distinctly lacks a link to the Bush Administration which is also a big plus. He has to overcome the challenge of lower name recognition and being unknown outside Kansas and the inner GOP circle.
5) Tom Tancredo - Although he has yet to officially announce his candidacy, it is all but certain he will. He won't get far, but much like Kucinich on the Democratic side, he will have a niche candidacy and may stay in the race longer than expected and may force policy stances and a platform that closely resembles his views from the eventual nominee.
6) Ron Paul - The Libertarian Texas Congressman is much like Tancredo, hoping his candidacy helps shape the platform since he has no chance of capturing the nomination.
7) Jim Gilmore - The Republican National Committee Chairman and former Virginia Governor is DOA for the Presidential campaign as he is unknown outside the Commonwealth.
8) Mike Huckabee - The stories of his massive weight loss while he was Arkansas Governor will be about the only attention he will get unless Oprah invites him to be on her show to talk about that and he tries to get a word in edgewise about everything else that his candidacy is about.
9) Duncan Hunter - Much like Jim Gilmore, the hawkish California Congressman is out of his league and will be out very quickly.
10) Tom Thompson - The former Wisconsin Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services, a respected voice on education reform, will never get his campaign far off the ground and figures to be an early exit from the race.
...and one or more other persons should be discussed, but who they are and what their names are unknown at this time. Almost definitely, they will be designated as the Bush Administration's specific candidate for the Republican Presidential Nomination. This individual may get into this position by becoming Vice-President when and if Dick Cheney resigns. It may also be someone already in the cabinet or having a profile elsewhere in Government. It will be quite interesting when this individual emerges as it accepted that Bush, Cheney, and Rove are not pleased with the current crop of nominee seekers running.
The whole thing about this story is that is had to be discussed 10-12 months before it should have and by the time next winter comes we will already be tired of all the media coverage of these candidates and what they are talking about and we may actually welcome the interuptions obsessively covering the lurid, sordid, and tragic lives and deaths of Hollywood and other types of celebrities, God forbid!
Monday, February 19, 2007
The Best Plan Yet for a Tremendous Problem
From the January 26, 2007, edition of the Christian Science Monitor:
Fix federal aid for presidential races
If candidates decline public campaign funds, their donors
will be embedded in the Oval Office.
The Monitor's View
The 2008 presidential race is shaping up to be the greenest in history. And we're not talking tree- hugging. Hillary Clinton has waved off federal funds for the general election, with others likely to follow. Is this the end for the public campaign-finance system?
Congress needs to change the law that was designed in the 1970s to keep presidential elections from being partly decided by how much money is spent. Otherwise, presidents will be even more beholden to donors in their official decisions.
Finish reading the article at:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0126/p08s01-comv.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And with this news, it becomes more vital to address this failing campaign finance situation :
Nine state legislatures have bills pending that would move up their presidential primary date next year.
Current date Proposed date
Arizona September 9 March 2
California June 3 February 5
Florida March 11 January 29
Illinois March 18 February 5
Indiana May 5 March 3
Nebraska May 13 February 9
New Jersey February 26 February 5
Pennsylvania April 22 March 4
Texas March 4 February 5
Fix federal aid for presidential races
If candidates decline public campaign funds, their donors
will be embedded in the Oval Office.
The Monitor's View
The 2008 presidential race is shaping up to be the greenest in history. And we're not talking tree- hugging. Hillary Clinton has waved off federal funds for the general election, with others likely to follow. Is this the end for the public campaign-finance system?
Congress needs to change the law that was designed in the 1970s to keep presidential elections from being partly decided by how much money is spent. Otherwise, presidents will be even more beholden to donors in their official decisions.
Finish reading the article at:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0126/p08s01-comv.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And with this news, it becomes more vital to address this failing campaign finance situation :
Nine state legislatures have bills pending that would move up their presidential primary date next year.
Current date Proposed date
Arizona September 9 March 2
California June 3 February 5
Florida March 11 January 29
Illinois March 18 February 5
Indiana May 5 March 3
Nebraska May 13 February 9
New Jersey February 26 February 5
Pennsylvania April 22 March 4
Texas March 4 February 5
Closing In on a New Record
Tune in on Wednesday the 21st and Thursday the 22nd to see if the record does get broken...
Heres the link:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=consec_snowog
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
725 AM MST MON FEB 19 2007
..DENVER'S CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SNOW COVER CONTINUES.......
... 61 CONSECUTIVE DAYS...NOW IN 2ND PLACE......
...NOW ONLY 2 DAYS FROM THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 63 DAYS...
AT APPROXIMATELY 6 AM ON THIS MONDAY MORNING, THE OBSERVERS AT THE FORMER STAPLETON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED THE SNOW DEPTH. THE AVERAGE DEPTH OF THE SNOW DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS 2 INCHES WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE 1 INCH REQUIRED FOR THE STREAK TO CONTINUE.
THEREFORE...AS OF MONDAY...FEBRUARY 19TH...61 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE SNOW COVER HAS BEEN RECORDED IN DENVER MOVING THE CURRENT STREAK INTO THE 2ND MOST CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVERED DAYS IN DENVER WEATHER HISTORY. THE ALL TIME MOST CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVERED DAYS IS 63. THAT RECORD IS NOW ALSO IN JEOPARDY!
MEASURABLE SNOW IS DEFINED AS HAVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH IS OFFICIALLY MEASURED NEAR THE FORMER STAPLETON INTERNATONAL AIRPORT. DENVER WEATHER HISTORY FOR SNOWFALL STATISTICS BEGAN IN JANUARY 1882.
THE CURRENT STREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT AND MELTING WILL OCCUR. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING. THUS ANY MELTING WILL BE TEMPORARILY HALTED... BUT THE ACTUAL SNOW COVER DEPTH SHOULD STILL DECREASE.
THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE SNOW COVER IN DENVER WAS 63 DAYS FROM NOVEMBER 26TH 1983 THROUGH JANUARY 27TH 1984. THAT RECORD SETTING PERIOD WAS MAINLY THE RESULT OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND BLIZZARD THAT DUMPED 21.5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF SNOW COVER BEGAN WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM JUST LIKE THE DECEMBER 20-21 2006 BLIZZARD.
ALSO NOTE HOW MOST OF THESE LONG STREAKS BEGAN IN OR NEAR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...WHEN THE DAYS ARE SHORTEST AND THE SUN ANGLE IS LOWEST .
HERE IS A LIST OF THE TOP 10 PERIODS OF CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVER IN DENVER:
NUMBER OF DAYS INCLUSIVE DATES
63 DAYS....................................NOVEMBER 26 1983 - JANUARY 27 1984
**61 DAYS AND MELTING.........DECEMBER 21 2006 - FEBRUARY 19 2007 (Updated)**
60 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 1 1913 - JANUARY 29 1914
48 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 24 1982 - FEBRUARY 9 1983
43 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 19 1973 - JANUARY 30 1974
39 DAYS....................................NOVEMBER 21 1992 - DECEMBER 29 1992
38 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 24 1987 - JANUARY 30 1988
35 DAYS...................................JANUARY 2 1949 - FEBRUARY 5 1949
33 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 17 1918 - JANUARY 18 1919
27 DAYS...................................JANUARY 28 1989 - FEBRUARY 23 1989
WFO DENVER/BOULDER
Heres the link:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=consec_snowog
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
725 AM MST MON FEB 19 2007
..DENVER'S CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SNOW COVER CONTINUES.......
... 61 CONSECUTIVE DAYS...NOW IN 2ND PLACE......
...NOW ONLY 2 DAYS FROM THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 63 DAYS...
AT APPROXIMATELY 6 AM ON THIS MONDAY MORNING, THE OBSERVERS AT THE FORMER STAPLETON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED THE SNOW DEPTH. THE AVERAGE DEPTH OF THE SNOW DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS 2 INCHES WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE 1 INCH REQUIRED FOR THE STREAK TO CONTINUE.
THEREFORE...AS OF MONDAY...FEBRUARY 19TH...61 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE SNOW COVER HAS BEEN RECORDED IN DENVER MOVING THE CURRENT STREAK INTO THE 2ND MOST CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVERED DAYS IN DENVER WEATHER HISTORY. THE ALL TIME MOST CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVERED DAYS IS 63. THAT RECORD IS NOW ALSO IN JEOPARDY!
MEASURABLE SNOW IS DEFINED AS HAVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH IS OFFICIALLY MEASURED NEAR THE FORMER STAPLETON INTERNATONAL AIRPORT. DENVER WEATHER HISTORY FOR SNOWFALL STATISTICS BEGAN IN JANUARY 1882.
THE CURRENT STREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT AND MELTING WILL OCCUR. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING. THUS ANY MELTING WILL BE TEMPORARILY HALTED... BUT THE ACTUAL SNOW COVER DEPTH SHOULD STILL DECREASE.
THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE SNOW COVER IN DENVER WAS 63 DAYS FROM NOVEMBER 26TH 1983 THROUGH JANUARY 27TH 1984. THAT RECORD SETTING PERIOD WAS MAINLY THE RESULT OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND BLIZZARD THAT DUMPED 21.5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF SNOW COVER BEGAN WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM JUST LIKE THE DECEMBER 20-21 2006 BLIZZARD.
ALSO NOTE HOW MOST OF THESE LONG STREAKS BEGAN IN OR NEAR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...WHEN THE DAYS ARE SHORTEST AND THE SUN ANGLE IS LOWEST .
HERE IS A LIST OF THE TOP 10 PERIODS OF CONSECUTIVE SNOW COVER IN DENVER:
NUMBER OF DAYS INCLUSIVE DATES
63 DAYS....................................NOVEMBER 26 1983 - JANUARY 27 1984
**61 DAYS AND MELTING.........DECEMBER 21 2006 - FEBRUARY 19 2007 (Updated)**
60 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 1 1913 - JANUARY 29 1914
48 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 24 1982 - FEBRUARY 9 1983
43 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 19 1973 - JANUARY 30 1974
39 DAYS....................................NOVEMBER 21 1992 - DECEMBER 29 1992
38 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 24 1987 - JANUARY 30 1988
35 DAYS...................................JANUARY 2 1949 - FEBRUARY 5 1949
33 DAYS....................................DECEMBER 17 1918 - JANUARY 18 1919
27 DAYS...................................JANUARY 28 1989 - FEBRUARY 23 1989
WFO DENVER/BOULDER
A Little Help, Please?
I am trying to remember the titles of two movies I saw when I was a boy. One which I saw in 1968 or 1969 was about some kids who travel down a river through time and see the iceage, cavemen, large mammals, dinosaurs, sea creatures, and all the way back to the dawn of the planet and then they wake up and realize it was only a dream. The second movie was one I saw while in school--middle school--and it was about a Confederate soldier who is dreaming about or reminiscing about his past just before he is hung by the Union soldiers. It was in black and white. Any information about these two films would be greatly appreciated.
I am also trying to remember the names of some series of books that I read along with my siblings. One set was about some young detectives who were mentored by Alfred Hitchcock and they solved crimes and mysteries in books that were about 100 pages or so long. The other series I am much more vague about as these books were read before age 10 and concerned animals in the jungle and savannah that talked and learned about other animals and one thing about these series of books was the animals had one storybook based on their ability to camouflage and conceal themselves in the jungle, such as a leopard. I am sure that this material is out of print but perhaps one of my siblings has better recall about having these stories read to them and reading these books themselves. Thanks for any assistance or insight on these questions.
I am also trying to remember the names of some series of books that I read along with my siblings. One set was about some young detectives who were mentored by Alfred Hitchcock and they solved crimes and mysteries in books that were about 100 pages or so long. The other series I am much more vague about as these books were read before age 10 and concerned animals in the jungle and savannah that talked and learned about other animals and one thing about these series of books was the animals had one storybook based on their ability to camouflage and conceal themselves in the jungle, such as a leopard. I am sure that this material is out of print but perhaps one of my siblings has better recall about having these stories read to them and reading these books themselves. Thanks for any assistance or insight on these questions.
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