Seeing Matt Holliday leave the Colorado Rockies was not a surprise, except for what team he was traded to, the Oakland Athletics. And the players acquired in the deal do not generate any kind of anticipation or excitement whatsoever. Nevertheless, it is a tremendous disappointment to see him go. Holliday may have been the best player in the history of the club, and would have been without question had he played his entire career in Denver. I am not angry, but some others truly are.-
I fully understand why he had to be traded, and the truth is unpleasant. Basically the ownership of the Rockies is financially unable and unwilling to sign players to long term contracts and to sums of money that are really obscene. The owners, the Brothers Monfort, have been burned three times seriously doing just that: with Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle in 2001, and with Todd Helton in 2002. All three deals turned out to be disasters.
-The Rockies simply lack the revenue to support a payroll much in excess of $75 to 80 million dollars. It took them those three expensive contract errors to understand that. The club only gets a limited amount of income from televison and radio, and it is of an amount that will never be more sizeable anytime soon. Revenue for naming rights to Coors Field will only increase marginally in the coming years with the contract in place for the future. Attendance for games will never return to the levels seen in the first decade of the club's existence except on a limited basis. The club is reasonable to budget for an average attendance of around 25,000 to 30,000 fans per game. The season ticket base will likely remain around 10,000 to 12,000 for the foreseeable future with swings of 20 % either way depending on how the club performs on the field and in the standings. While the internet holds some promise of new revenues, most of that will be kept by Major League Baseball and distributed in a shared way to all 30 clubs. Beyond that, there is little or any other revenue sources that can be increased.
-The Rockies made pre-emptive strikes with Troy Tulowitzski and Manny Corpas in signing them to longterm deals after only their rookie seasons. In hindsight, this is what should have been done is regard to Holliday. A deal should have put in place in '05 to keep him in Denver for several years, but it was not done due to the bad taste left in the mouths of the Monforts after the disastrous deals for Hampton, Neagle, and now Helton.
-I expect the Rockies to continue their strategy of signing promising young players to deals similar to the ones with Tulowitzski and Corpas. I believe similar deals with length of years in the same range (3 to 6 years) for C Chris Ianetta, 3B Ian Stewart, and OF Ryan Spilboroughs. If young up - and - comers like Dexter Fowler also excel, they may be signed to early deals.
-As for current players 3B Garrett Atkins, C Yorbit Torrealba, and CF Willie Taveras, I expect them to be traded in the weeks and months ahead. RF Brad Hawpe is another player I would not be surprised to see dealt, probably during the upcoming 2009 season.
-The pitching staff should see some turnover as well in the back of the rotation and in the long part of the bullpen. Lets hope Jeff Francis bounces back from a disastrous season. And hopefully the decent to good pitching we saw for much of 2008 from Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jorge De La Rosa will continue in 2009 for the most part. Who will be the 5th starter is one of the questions to answer before Opening Day. Candidates on the roster currently include newly - acquired Greg Smith, veteran Glendon Rusch, oft - injured Jason Hirsch, and often roughed up young Greg Reynolds. One has to think the starting pitching will be better in 2009, and if there is to be any hope for contending, the area where success will be have to be generated beyond expectations.
-
The bullpen looks as if it is the best and most promising part of the club in spite of the departure of longime closer Brian Fuentes. Corpas, newly - acquired Huston Street, Taylor Bucholz, Jason Grilli, and Ryan Speier have the history and continued potential to to perform superbly overall in the upcoming season.
-The projection for the 2009 starting eight is an infield of Todd Helton at 1B; a platoon of Clint Barmes, Jeff Baker, and Omar Quintinilla at 2B (but one of these three could be dealt away); Tulowitzski at SS; and Stewart at 3B to replace the soon to be traded Atkins. Ianetta is now established at C, while the outfield now looks to be Spilboroughs in LF, newly acquired Carlos Gonzalez in CF, and Hawpe for at least the time being to be in RF. The bench will have OF Seth Smith, 1B - OF Joe Koshansky, C Edwin Bellorin, and one other OF. Dexter Fowler could get the job, but I believe now it is more likely he will start the season in AAA Colorado Springs until the need arrives for him to come and play regularly either due to a trade or an injury to one of the other Rockies outfielders. I have heard the Rockies would like to re-sign Scott Podsednik, but he is a free agent right now and may end signing with another club this offseason. Another veteran free agent OF will likely be signed to fill the reserve role if Podsednik moves on.
-There will be a big hole in the Rockies lineup with Holliday leaving. Helton is nowhere what he was several years ago, and Hawpe has yet to show any consistency over the length of an entire season. With Atkins likely gone as well, the offense will struggle to score runs a lot more often. And the ability to manufacture runs will be steeply limited with the departure of Taveras following that of Kaz Matsui prior to the 2008 season. I look for the Rockies to be in the bottom half of all NL team batting and hitting statistics in 2009.
-Most fans had high hopes for the Rockies coming into the 2008 season after their sudden and exciting National League pennant victory in 2007. The mood for the upcoming 2009 will be completely subdued. I would say at this time the Rockies are ticketed for a fourth place finish in the National League West in 2009. They will struggle to win 70 games. They will be thankful San Diego is in their division, as only the now hapless Padres are sure to be worse than Colorado due to the messy divorce proceedings ensnarling San Diego owner John Moores that will keep the Padres from any kind of improvement in 2009 from their disastrous 2008 season. It is amazing in some ways and not in others how these two clubs, participants in an exciting great memorable play - in game on 1 October 2007 to get into the NL postseason that my brother and I witnessed in person, have crashed to earth so fast and so hard.
-
With others and my glum outlook, it is probably better than 50 - 50 that Manager Clint Hurdle does not survive the season, and a managerial change before midseason would not be shocking.
-
Maybe soon, very soon, there will be a change of ownership for the Colorado Rockies and the Monforts will depart and not let the door hit their collective large asses on the way out. But it seems unlikely another owner with deeper pockets and a willingness to spend his own money will be coming anytime soon. There simply are not many of the kinds of individuals in the Rockies region, and the ongoing economic collapse and deep recession is paring down their numbers as we breathe.
-
Lets just hope we are not doomed to become like Cubs' fans.... Another winter of our discontent is now here again for us Rockies fans throughout the West and nation...
-
But I still plan to attend at least one - half dozen games in the upcoming 2009 season, largely with my good friend Matt but also hopefully with my younges brother as well.
-*****
Posts
