There is a greater level of parity this season than in past seasons. Almost 80 % of all the clubs have a possibility of playing in the postseason, but as normal, much has to go right for most of those clubs to achieve that objective, including much going wrong for the big guys.
Pitching will take another small step forward and ahead of the offense, while some clubs may actually make greater use of smallball and base running to add to their offense. Fundamentals on defense should also see some improvement this season as poor execution and simple mistakes have been increasingly evident in recent seasons, making clubs pay greater attention to this side of the ballgame.
Here are my projections.
American League
East:
1) Boston: They seem to have all the pieces of the puzzle in place and the key will be staying healthy. A slight edge over NY and TB due to their pitching. The Sox offense is among the best in the game
2) New York: They are not missing much, but many key veterans are a year older. The outfield needs to show it can do the job. They are due to slip a notch. The Bombers will hit with their usual ferocity and consistency for the most part through the season, but the pitching could have questions at a number of junctures.
3) Tampa Bay: A great starting lineup, but questions exist with the strength and durability of the pitching. This club could go all the way if most of the potential is realized and health issues are minimized.
4) Baltimore: The most improved club in the division, but the starting pitching still is clearly a couple of notches behind the three contenders. The Oriole offense should be one of the better ones in the AL.
5) Toronto: The Jays will be down, but will not probably not fall as far as many are imagining. If healthy, the Toronto pitching is capable of helping keep the club largely competitive. Optimism concerning the offense is not as upbeat.
Central:
1) Minnesota: The loss of Nathan will hurt, but the other forces in the offense and pitching will be enough to take the division, and possibly more, in the inaugural season in the exciting new outdoor stadium.
2) Chicago: The pitching promises to be superb, but not so for the offense. Guillen also is a negative as he costs his club victories with his attitude and behavior. The White Sox, however, have enough to be considered a dark horse for the AL pennant.
3) Detroit: A shaky offense will cost the Tigers despite a pretty good pitching staff. Look for a hangover after blowing the division lead late last season, costing them what seemed to be a certain postseason berth.
4) Kansas City: A lot of questions here with a roster definitively unexciting outside of the starting pitching. Royals could surpass 75 victories or near 100 losses again. They will not contend.
5) Cleveland: Much like KC, lots of questions. Indians pitching could be a disaster, and the offense has yet to show much overall promise. Indians will likely be among the AL's worst clubs.
West:
1) Texas: In what will be the sport's most contested race, the Rangers seems to have the most and best pieces in place to outlast the other three clubs. A good offense, and a better than normal pitching staff should be enough, barely.
2) Anaheim: The three-time defending AL West champs have lost a lot of key players in the last two years, and it may finally catch up with them. Anaheim has decent pitching, but an offense that may struggle more often than not. They will barely miss out in being part of the postseason.
3) Seattle: The Mariners have a great pitching staff, but the offense has a lot of holes. This disadvantage will result in them being close but no cigar or pennant. Next to Pujols, Suzuki is the best player in the game, but the Mariners lack anyone else that can be described as exceptional in the rest of their anticipated lineup (Griffey is a mere shadow of what he was).
4) Oakland: Perhaps the most improved club in the AL. The Athletics will struggle somewhat offensively, but their pitching is good enough to keep them competitive and in the AL West race deep into the season.
National League:
West:
1) Colorado: The key is the health of the pitching staff and the consistency of the offense. Have those two go largely right and the Rockies will claim their first NL West pennant in September.
2) Los Angeles: The Dodgers have a pretty good team but there are some issues concerning chemistry, consistency, and intangibles. This is a club that could very well underachieve.
3) Arizona: If Webb is able to go, the Diamondbacks' prospects improve markedly, making them a contender. The Arizona offense must show more than what is being expected though.
4) San Francisco: The game's worst offense will be the undoing of the Giants in spite of a sterling pitching staff that has still yet to reach its potential and show consistency all season.
5) San Diego: The Padres will also be better than what many are forecasting. Nonetheless, they are doomed to finish in the NL West basement with the pitching staff they have.
Central:
1) St Louis: If the Cards stay healthy, they should take the division again without much difficulty. St Louis is always better collectively than the sum of their parts under La Russa and Duncan. Having Pujols is a huge plus that no other club comes close to having.
2) Cincinnati: The Reds are a darkhorse to claim the NL Pennant, but much has to go right, particularly with the health and consistency of their pitching. The offense should be improved.
3) Chicago: Make it 103 years without a World Series title. Chicago is the opposite of St Louis. They are not as good as the sum of their parts would indicate, particularly with their pitching.
4) Milwaukee: The Brewers' offense will be a presence all season, but the pitching leaves much to be desired. Still, the potential to exceed expectations is realistic given the Milwaukee roster.
5) Houston: This is an old club with major pitching deficiencies. The Astros could be around .500, but they are more likely to have less than 70 victories.
6) Pittsburgh: An 18th consecutive losing season is a sure thing, but the Pirates are headed in the right direction with a good personnel strategy in place. Last place is still going to be their home though.
East:
1) Philadelphia: This is the best team on paper in MLB, and a third consecutive trip to the World Series looks likely, a first for an NL club since St Louis from 1942-44. Pitching health and consistency would seem to be the only concern about the Phillies.
2) Atlanta: The Braves will be improved and could challenge the Phillies more than what is being imagined. The Braves' offense needs to step it up, and the pitching perform as it is capable of. Another NL dark horse to take the pennant.
3) Florida: The Marlins are another team that is better collectively than the sum of their parts. They probably lack enough pitching to stay with PHIL, but Florida has the offense to stay competitive through the season.
4) New York: Baseball's most dysfunctional and chemistry deficient club. The Mets will have their moments, but not as many as they need to or should have. They will stay on the periphery of contention for most of the season, but in the end it will be another losing season as manager Manuel is fired at some point during the season.
5) Washington: The Nationals have hit bottom but its a long way back up. Lots of holes and shortcomings throughout the roster, but they will be decidedly better than they were in '09. 70 victories is not out of the question,
Postseason:
Red Sox over the Twins
Rangers over the Yankees
Twins over the Red Sox
Rockies over the Braves
Phillies over the Cardinals
Phillies over the Rockies
Phillies over the Twins to win the 2010 World Series.
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